Shanying Paper (600567): 3Q19 gross margin significantly pressured 4Q to improve marginal improvement
3Q19 performance was slightly lower than our expected 3Q19 revenue of 59.
6.4 billion, up from 0 previously.
3%, a slight increase of 0 from the previous month.
2%; net profit attributable to mother 3.
9.9 billion yuan, an average of 34 in ten years.
6%, compared with 14 carbonic acid.
5%, slightly lower than our expectations, mainly due to the lower-than-expected 3Q19 paper price.
Opinions: 1) Significant increase in sales volume in 3Q19: We estimate that the sales volume of raw paper in 3Q19 company is 127, with an increase of about 10% every other and an increase of about 7% from the previous month. We believe that it is mainly due to the company’s increased capacity release; 2) Packaging paper salesThe price is the same, the chain is significantly lower than the previous month, and the gross profit margin is under pressure: the 3Q19 industry box plate we track has dropped by more than 20%, and the average price has decreased by 6%.
The company’s gross profit margin was the same in 3Q19, which was 5ppt and 3 lower than the previous quarter.
5ppt to 16.
5%, we think it is mainly due to the same 3Q price of its main product boxboard, which is dragged down by the chain shift.
3) Better fee control: The company’s expense ratio increased by 0 during 3Q19.
7ppt, molecular weight 0 ring.
3ppt to 13.
There is still room for improvement in the balance sheet.
The company’s net debt at the end of 3Q19 was 156.
800 million, an earlier net increase of 20.
3 ppm; net impurity compensation at the end of the third quarter was 111%, an increase of 20 ppt a year, and an increase of 7 ppt at the beginning of 2018, indicating that there is still room for improvement in the balance sheet.
3Q19 operating cash flow was 23.
700 million US dollars, a ten-year average of 27.
Development Trend The gross profit per ton of the company in 4Q19 is expected to improve quarter-on-quarter.
With the arrival of the 4Q19 peak season, at the end of October, the industry’s containerboard price has gradually increased by 100 yuan / ton (or 2%) from the low point of the off-season. At the same time, the average price of imported waste paper has also increased by 12%, but the national waste price is at handDemand improvement prices rose slightly by 2% from the off-season.
Taken together, we expect the company’s gross profit per ton of paper to improve in 4Q19 compared to 3Q19, but considering that we expect 4Q19?
In 2020, the production capacity of over 500 tons of packaging paper (including corrugated board and corrugated board) will be put into production, which will increase supply pressure, and the company’s gross profit per ton is expected to be limited.
The orderly addition of new production capacity is expected to contribute to incremental profits.
As of the end of 3Q19, the company’s first phase project of Huazhong Papermaking Base (the project plans to build a total of 220 tons of packaging paper capacity and 110 tons of the first phase) has entered the equipment commissioning phase. The company expects to 杭州桑拿网 start trial production in November. We estimate that the company’s packaging paper willThe production capacity will increase by 18%, which is expected to contribute to the profit increase; Phoenix Paper’s 12 waste pulp production line (technical transformation project) is expected to start production at the end of the year.
Earnings Forecasts and Estimates As a result of lowered gross margins and assumptions, we cut the 2019e / 20eEPS by 38, respectively.
1% and 28.
6% to 0.
The current priority corresponds to 7.
7x / 6.
0x2019e / 20eP / E.
Maintain outperforming industry and lower target price by 20% to 3.
9 yuan (corresponding to 9).
6x / 7.
5x2019e / 20eP / E and 26% upside).
Under the shock of risk supply, the price of paper fell more than expected, and the cost of waste paper increased after the ban on the import of waste paper.